Indonesia increased imports by 28 percent in the first half of 2021
The archipelago's foreign trade has overcome the corona crisis. However, suppliers from Germany and Europe are not benefiting from this boom.
According to Indonesia’s statistics office BPS, Indonesia imported goods worth US$91 billion (roughly just over Rp 1.2 quadrillion) in the first half of 2021. This corresponds to a growth of 28.4% compared to the same period last year and is the highest value in recent years. This is an astonishingly positive trend, as the economy only grew by 3.1% in the first six months of the year, which is well below the pre-crisis level.
Imports in the first half of 2021 were almost on par with the record year 2012, when goods worth around $191.7 billion were imported. This was during a lockdown in July and August that was likely to have dampened the demand for foreign goods.
At the same time, Indonesia exported goods worth $102.9 billion from January to June 2021, an increase of 34.8%. This could even exceed the high foreign trade surplus of last year for the year as a whole.
Imports from Germany fell
By far Indonesia's most important supplier of goods is China. The People's Republic was able to increase its import share to 28.2% in the first half of 2021. If the oil and gas imports are factored out, then China is already responsible for almost a third of the imports. Ten years ago, this proportion was around 15%.
However, Germany was unable to benefit from the import boom and, according to trade statistics, supplied goods worth only $1.5 billion (Destatis's German export figures are even lower). This puts Germany in twelfth place in the import ranking. Germany was the only one of these twelve countries to deliver fewer goods than in the same period in the previous year. With the exception of Japan, everyone else was able to increase their deliveries by double-digit percentages.
In addition, the current figures confirm the trend of recent years and decades: For Indonesia, regional suppliers are becoming more important, while imports from Europe and North America are becoming less important. Two thirds of all foreign purchases today come from the East Asian region or ASEAN. North America, including Mexico, only accounts for 7 percent, and Europe hardly more than 5 percent.
For comparison: at the turn of the millennium, the USA had an import share of more than 10 percent. The German share was then larger than the Chinese and higher than the pan-Europe region today.
Weak demand for machines
In all larger product groups, imports increased in the double-digit percentage range in the first half of 2021. Machines are an exception. Because the processing industry in the archipelago is only slowly recovering from the crisis. It contracted more than the economy as a whole in 2020 and recovered more slowly than it in the first six months of 2021. As before, foreign sales and service staff cannot enter the country or can only come into the country with considerable difficulty.
Imports of petrochemicals, on the other hand, increased in value by 50%, while those of crude oil almost doubled. The reasons for this are increased world market prices. Last year the archipelago took advantage of the low prices to replenish supplies. Indonesia lacks petrochemical processing capacities. The construction of new refineries is stalling. In times of high world market prices, petroleum products can account for up to a quarter of total imports.
Food is now one of the most important import goods. The reasons are weak agriculture and poor investment conditions in this sector. In particular, wheat that is not grown in the country. Sugar, and fruit and vegetables have to be imported as well.
By far the most important German group of goods in the food sector are milk and milk products. In the first half of 2021, corresponding goods worth $38 million were purchased from Germany. This corresponds to an increase of two thirds compared to the same period of the previous year. Overall, the archipelago increased its imports of milk and dairy products slightly to $671 million from January to June 2021.
Automobile imports undesirable
The import of motor vehicles increased by almost twenty percent compared to the first half of 2020. However, further growth opportunities are limited because the government is following a strict localization policy. The import of finished automobiles and their spare parts is becoming increasingly difficult. The import figures have been falling accordingly for years.
The on-site assembly of kits as an alternative to importing is a tedious business when sales are small. According to the Gaikindo automobile association, Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen and Audi sold a total of just 2,600 cars in retail in the first half of 2021. That is a combined market share of only around 0.7 percent.