Global business sentiment has become more cautious amid changing trade dynamics and increasing policy uncertainty. According to the latest AHK World Business Outlook (Spring 2025), German companies operating abroad are re-evaluating their expectations, investment strategies, and growth outlooks. The newly introduced U.S. trade policy, announced by former President Donald Trump on “Liberation Day” (2 April 2025), has prompted companies to adapt to a rapidly evolving global environment.
“The latest developments in U.S. trade policy are significantly influencing global supply chains,” explains Volker Treier, Head of Foreign Trade at the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK). “Companies are adjusting their strategies and preparing for more complex and potentially less predictable frameworks.”
Confidence Dips as Companies Reassess Outlooks
The spring 2025 survey - based on responses from 4,600 companies across over 90 countries - shows a notable shift in sentiment. Only 19% of companies now expect an improvement in their local economies over the next twelve months, compared to 27% in autumn 2024. Meanwhile, 33% foresee a downturn, up from 22% previously. The global balance of economic expectations has dropped to -14 points, reflecting a cautious mood.
This shift is most pronounced in North America, where the balance of expectations has fallen to -34 points. In Canada, only 7% anticipate better conditions, while 76% expect a decline. Similar patterns are seen in Mexico and the U.S. In Greater China, recently introduced U.S. tariffs – now reaching up to 145% on many imports – have also weighed on sentiment. Despite these challenges, regions such as Africa and the Middle East remain more optimistic, with 40% of companies in those areas expecting economic improvements.
U.S. Trade Policy Prompts Strategic Reassessment
The revised U.S. trade agenda is playing a central role in shaping expectations. Following the April 2 announcement of new tariffs, 69% of companies worldwide now anticipate a negative impact on their business, compared to 56% before the announcement. North America reflects the highest level of concern, with 85% of German companies in the region expecting some form of disruption.
Across different regions, companies highlight increased planning complexity, potential pricing impacts from tariffs, and competitive shifts in response to redirected trade flows. For example, firms in Southeast Asia note that a potential increase in Chinese exports to their markets could intensify competition. Meanwhile, some businesses that had considered relocating operations to the U.S. are now taking a more cautious approach. On a more positive note, 7% of surveyed firms see opportunities – often through regional trade diversification or growing intra-EU trade.
Investment and Employment Plans Show Greater Prudence
Current economic conditions are prompting companies to take a more conservative approach to investment and hiring. Globally, 28% plan to increase investment in the coming year, a slight decline from 30% previously. At the same time, 21% anticipate scaling back. This brings the overall investment balance to 7 points, which is below the long-term average of 14.
In the U.S., investment sentiment has shifted notably. Only 24% of companies are planning to increase investment, while 29% are reducing their plans – resulting in a balance of minus 5 points. Similar patterns appear in Canada and Mexico, where cautiousness around capital expenditure is rising.
Hiring plans are also more measured. Globally, 31% of companies intend to expand their workforce, while 16% foresee reductions – bringing the global employment expectations balance down from 21 to 15 points. North America, once again, shows the sharpest change, while hiring sentiment remains stronger in sub-Saharan Africa and the MENA region.
Shifting Risk Landscape: Policy Uncertainty Gains Prominence
This year marks a shift in the top concerns among global businesses. For the first time in several years, economic policy uncertainty has overtaken weak demand as the most cited business risk, with 49% of companies listing it as a primary concern. Demand-related risks remain close behind at 46%, followed by skilled labor shortages (34%) and rising labor costs (33%).
In the U.S., this shift is especially pronounced. The share of companies citing trade barriers as a significant risk jumped from 21% to 71%, and 73% now list policy uncertainty as a concern. Supply chain disruptions and legal unpredictability have also gained attention. In the eurozone, a similar pattern is visible, with increasing focus on political and regulatory developments.
In Greater China, businesses primarily cite weak demand and trade policy as their top challenges. In South America, concerns are similarly centered around economic governance, particularly in countries with close trade ties to the U.S., such as Ecuador and Colombia.
Looking Ahead: Long-Term Structural Challenges
Over the next five years, businesses foresee a number of structural challenges that could reshape the global economy. The most commonly cited are rising tariffs and counter-tariffs (77%), growing political influence on supply chains (63%), and shifts in market dynamics due to industrial policy and subsidies (32%).
Other significant long-term concerns include inflation and monetary policy (40%), global economic fragmentation (40%), and the rapid pace of digital transformation and artificial intelligence integration (also 40%). These challenges underline the importance of flexibility and innovation in business planning.
A Time for Collaborative Solutions
The 2025 World Business Outlook underscores the importance of clarity and cooperation in economic policymaking. “The message from global businesses is clear: they are ready to adapt but need reliable, transparent, and fair conditions to thrive,” says Treier. “Whether in Berlin, Brussels, or Washington, decision-makers must work toward a stable and forward-looking global trade environment.”
