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Indonesia's Economy Beats Forecasts, Expands 5.29% in Second Quarter

Indonesia's economy beat expectations with 5.29 percent growth in the second quarter of 2026, driven by resilient consumer spending and investment despite tighter monetary policy and global economic headwinds.

News Indonesia's Economy Beats Forecasts, Expands 5.29% in Second Quarter

The Indonesian economy grew 5.29 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, outpacing the 5.10 percent growth economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. Gross domestic product rose 3.73 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis, and growth for the first half of the year reached 5.45 percent compared with the same period in 2025, according to data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The economy was valued at IDR 6,552.1 trillion, or roughly USD 365.67 billion, at current prices for the April-June period. 

 

Household consumption was the primary driver of growth, contributing 2.67 percentage points to the overall expansion and accounting for more than half of GDP, with the component rising 5.06 percent year-on-year. 

 

Private "consumption kept growing," BPS Deputy for National Accounts and Statistical Analysis Edy Mahmud said, as quoted by The Jakarta Post. Fixed investment expanded 6.87 percent, aided by a 26.03 percent jump in vehicle sales. Government consumption, meanwhile, surged 15.97 percent.  

 

By sector, electricity and gas supply grew fastest at 10.81 percent, followed by accommodation and food services at 10.60 percent, supported by higher hotel occupancy and the government's Free Nutritious Meals program.  

 

Ahead of the official release, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto had told reporters growth would stay "still above five percent," according to Antara. 

 

Even so, the second-quarter figure marks a slowdown from the 5.61 percent growth recorded in the first quarter, the fastest pace since the third quarter of 2022. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa had said Monday he was hoping for growth of around 5.4 percent; the government is now projecting a full-year range of 5.6 to 6 percent, according to The Jakarta Post. 

 

The moderation followed a volatile first half for markets. Indonesia's current account deficit widened to USD 4 billion in the first quarter, equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP, while Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rate by a cumulative 100 basis points, to 5.75 percent, between April and June to defend the rupiah. 

 

Indonesia's major trading partners largely continued to expand during the quarter, with Vietnam and Malaysia strengthening and Singapore and South Korea growing faster than a year earlier, even as the United States and China posted slower growth, said Edy, as quoted by to the Jakarta Globe. 

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