German companies abroad are entering 2026 under renewed pressure, but Indonesia is emerging as a notable exception in the latest AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026.
Published by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK), the survey captures the views of more than 4,500 German companies, branches, subsidiaries and firms with close ties to Germany worldwide.
The overall message is cautious: global economic expectations have weakened sharply as geopolitical uncertainty, higher energy prices, supply-chain disruptions and fluctuating demand weigh on international business. Only 21 percent of companies worldwide expect economic conditions at their locations to improve over the next twelve months, while 32 percent expect them to worsen.
Yet the Indonesia figures tell a different story.
According to the statistical appendix of the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026, 57 percent of German companies in Indonesia rate their current business situation as good, while only 9 percent describe it as poor. This gives Indonesia a current business situation balance of +48 points — well above the Asia-Pacific excluding China average of +20, and higher than Singapore (+10), Thailand (+11) and Vietnam (+15).
The outlook for companies’ own business is even stronger. Sixty percent of respondents in Indonesia expect their business to improve over the next twelve months, compared with only 6 percent expecting a decline. The resulting balance of +54 points places Indonesia far ahead of the regional average of +28, Vietnam (+15), Singapore (+3) and Thailand (-4).
Strong company outlook despite macro caution
German companies in Indonesia remain cautious about the local economy as a whole: 46 percent expect economic development on the ground to worsen over the next twelve months, while only 23 percent expect an improvement. Investment intentions are also almost neutral, with a balance of -3.
The results suggests that German companies see concrete opportunities in their own Indonesian operations, even as they remain alert to wider economic risks. That company-level confidence is supported by Indonesia’s recent macroeconomic performance. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that the economy grew by 5.61 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by domestic economic activity, while Bank Indonesia projects 2026 growth in the range of 4.9 to 5.7 percent.
In a region facing weaker external demand and renewed energy concerns, Indonesia’s large domestic market appears to offer a degree of resilience. While the country is not immune from global shocks, surveyed companies are more upbeat about their own prospects in Indonesia than in several neighbouring markets.
The survey also shows that Indonesia’s risk profile differs from that of other Asia-Pacific economies. Energy prices are cited as a business risk by 40 percent of respondents in Indonesia — close to the regional average, but below Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Concern over raw material prices is also significantly lower in Indonesia at 23 percent, compared with 52 percent in both Singapore and Thailand and 65 percent in Vietnam. Supply-chain disruptions are cited by 29 percent of companies in Indonesia, against 59 percent in Singapore, 50 percent in Thailand and 80 percent in Vietnam.
These sentiments highlight Indonesia’s strength in natural resource and its domestic market structure. The country is the world’s fourth-largest coal producer and Southeast Asia’s largest gas supplier, with over half of its GDP generated by domestic consumption.
Still, the risks are real. German companies in Indonesia cite economic policy as their top concern, at 60 percent, followed by exchange rates at 51 percent and demand at 46 percent. The World Bank has also warned that growth in East Asia and the Pacific is slowing in 2026 due to external shocks, including the Middle East energy shock, trade barriers, and policy uncertainty.
The challenge now is to turn that confidence into long-term investment. For that, companies will need predictable policy, exchange-rate stability, reliable supply networks and strong local partnerships. In a cautious region, Indonesia’s performance in the latest AHK World Business Outlook suggests that the market should remain firmly on the radar for German businesses.
About the AHK World Business Outlook
The AHK World Business Outlook (WBO) is a regular survey conducted by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) in cooperation with the German Chambers of Commerce Abroad (AHKs). The Spring 2026 survey gathered responses from more than 4,500 companies worldwide between 16 March and 10 April 2026.
Find the AHK World Business Outlook Spring 2026 reports here
