Several economic indicators released on 1 October 2026 pointed to stronger activity in Indonesia’s manufacturing and external sectors, alongside a further increase in consumer price inflation.
Indonesia’s S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52,4 in September from 49,8 in August, returning above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The September reading was the highest in seven months.
The improvement was supported by stronger demand. New orders increased at their fastest pace since February, while export orders expanded for a second consecutive month and at their fastest rate since May 2022. Manufacturing output also returned to growth, while companies increased employment to meet higher workloads.
Separate data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) showed that Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of USD 3,55 billion in August 2026, widening from approximately USD 120 million in July. Exports reached USD 26,61 billion, up 6,72% year-on-year, while imports amounted to USD 23,06 billion, an increase of 19,09% compared with August 2025.
Manufactured goods contributed to the increase in exports, with manufacturing exports rising 12,48% year-on-year in August. BPS reported increases across several major export commodities, including crude palm oil, coal, iron and steel, while nickel and its derivatives recorded the largest increase among the country’s ten main export commodities.
For the January–August 2026 period, Indonesia recorded total exports of USD 193,64 billion and imports of USD 186,39 billion. The cumulative trade surplus stood at USD 7,25 billion, comprising a USD 28,54 billion surplus in non-oil and gas trade and a USD 21,29 billion deficit in oil and gas trade.
At the same time, annual consumer price inflation increased to 3,28% in September from 3,19% in August. Month-on-month inflation stood at 0,30%, while year-to-date inflation reached 2,17%, according to BPS.
Food prices contributed to the increase. Bank Indonesia reported that volatile food inflation rose to 5,03% year-on-year, driven mainly by higher prices for commodities including chillies, chicken, rice and eggs. Core inflation, meanwhile, declined to 2,84% from 2,92% in August.
Despite the increase, headline inflation remained within Bank Indonesia’s 2026 target range of 2,5% ±1 percentage point. The central bank has maintained its inflation target for both 2026 and 2027 and kept the BI Rate at 5,75% at its September Board of Governors meeting.
