Bank Indonesia (BI) expects retail sales to grow 0.5% year-on-year (yoy) in August 2026, indicating continued annual growth despite a slight decline compared with the previous month.
“Retail sales performance in August 2026 is expected to continue growing,” BI stated in its latest Retail Sales Survey, released on 10 September.
Growth is expected to be driven primarily by the automotive parts and accessories category, which is projected to increase by 10.1% yoy, followed by food, beverages, and tobacco, with expected growth of 0.7% yoy.
On a monthly basis, however, retail sales are forecast to decline slightly by 0.1% month-on-month (mtm) in August. BI attributed the development mainly to lower sales in the Other Goods category, while several categories continued to record monthly growth. Information and communication equipment sales are projected to increase by 2.5% mtm, motor vehicle fuel by 2.3%, and automotive parts and accessories by 0.8%.
The August estimate follows positive annual growth in July. BI recorded retail sales growth of 1.1% yoy in July 2026, compared with a 3.0% yoy contraction in June. July sales were supported mainly by higher sales of food, beverages, and tobacco as well as other goods. On a monthly basis, sales declined 0.1% in July as demand normalised following national religious holidays and the school holiday period.
The retail sales outlook comes alongside an improvement in consumer confidence. BI’s Consumer Survey showed that the Consumer Confidence Index rose to 118.5 in August from 116.8 in July, remaining above the 100-point threshold that BI classifies as optimistic. The Current Economic Conditions Index increased to 109.4 from 107.9, while the Consumer Expectations Index rose to 127.6 from 125.7.
BI also expects future price pressures to ease. The General Price Expectations Index for October 2026 fell to 146.5, from 155.2 in the previous survey period, while the index for January 2027 declined to 166.0 from 168.1.
